The climate crisis is not just intensifying, it is also increasing at alarming rates and coming closer to home: New research by Sweco shows that the temperatures in Europe are rising at twice the global average rate, which has resulted in a 30% increase in heat-related mortality in the past 20 years. The report has recommendations for how to beat extreme heat.

Sweco, a European engineering consultancy company, has analysed 24 European cities. As the fastest warming continent, Europe is facing rising temperatures and rising heat-related mortality rights. The reporthighlights the urgent need for heat wave mitigation and resilience. It shows that some European cities are taking steps in the right direction to combat the heat, while major gaps remain.

Lagging adaptation policies

In 2023, Europe saw many sad records, especially concerning days with extreme heat. Sweco’s Global Carbon Budget team estimates that with the current emission levels, there is a 50% chance of global warming exceeding 1.5°C consistently around the year 2030. This kind of escalation of global temperatures will not only increase heat-related mortality rates, but also hasten the occurrence and severity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

In cities, the Urban Heat Island effect further exacerbates the issue, leading to fast surface warming and creating extreme heat, resulting in significant risks to public health, energy infrastructure, and economic productivity in urban areas. For example, in the summer of 2022, more than 61,000 people in Europe died because of a record-breaking heat wave.

Still, many cities neglect these risks and concerns in their climate plans. Adaptation policies are lagging according to Sweco, especially when it comes to safeguarding and protecting vulnerable communities. The study highlights that European cities are struggling to keep pace with adaptation measures for escalating heatwaves.

Methods to protect vulnerable groups

In its study, Sweco looked at adaptation and resilience practices in 24 European cities, using six cities in the North of the continent as primary case studies. By looking at heatwave data, the result concluded that all 24 cities will experience at least double the number of heatwave days in 2100 compared with 2020. An analysis of the cities’ climate resilience policies shows that some progress has been made, but overall, there is still a gap in urban heatwave adaptation policies. In particular, vulnerable populations are not covered by these policies. The issue is compounded by a lack of detailed data and vulnerability mapping in cities, which often hinders the monitoring and evaluation of existing adaptation policies.

Existing climate plans look at the cooling of facilities like preschools, assisted living facilities, and care homes to protect vulnerable groups. Of the EU’s budget, around 680 billion euro are allocated for climate-relevant measures during the 2021-2027 period. According to Sweco’s report, this means that there is available funding to build heat resilience. Now, European cities need to level up and implement new methods to fight extreme heat.

Half a million deaths from extreme heat

According to Sweco’s analysis, temperatures are expected to rise in every city in Europe. The authors stress the importance of focusing on urban heat islands and other negative climate effects particularly in Northern European cities. Typically, they are more concerned with providing heating, but with climate change, they are also susceptible to extreme heat.

The following estimates show how temperatures will likely rise in each city from 2020-2100, with the percentage noting the estimated increase in heatwave days:

• Copenhagen +160%
• Stockholm +150%
• Oslo +140%
• Rotterdam +130%
• Brussels +130%
• Helsinki +100%

The other cities that Sweco has studied include Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Madrid, Glasgow, Seville, London, Rome, Lisbon, Paris, Vienna, Barcelona, Geneva, Prague, Istanbul, Toulouse, Gdansk, Warsaw and Athens. In all of them, heatwaves pose significant risks to public health. They also have a negative effect on infrastructure and economic productivity in urban areas. Across Europe, almost half a million deaths can be attributed to extreme heat between 2000 and 2019, and 37 percent of heat-related deaths are attributable to climate change (1991-2018).

Beating the heat

Still, heat-related concerns often do not feature as prominently in urban climate plans as they should. Sweco’s report emphasises the need for authorities and policymakers to adapt regulations and act to address heatwaves as a key component in the green transition of cities. Blue-green infrastructure can be a mitigation approach, as well as investment in granular data to create digital twins for better heat assessment and management.

The report also recommends enabling innovation and co-creation to explore solutions at the building and neighbourhood scale, such as nature-based solutions, green-blue infrastructure, and updated regulations for new and existing buildings. By working together, cities have better chances to address extreme heat effectively. This requires investments in knowledge, data-driven heat management, and joint planning. Ultimately, a modern and efficient long-term vision safeguards public health and increases climate equality in cities. Considering that up to 84 percent of Europe’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, urban heat island effects will only increase, making effective climate plans against extreme heat ever more important.

Read more: Topos Magazine has launched the Beat the Heat Initiative to showcase innovative solutions for heat resilience, for example from Zurich and Dresden.